Pharmababble - Latest Comments in Fampridine Results Send Acorda Up +20%

Re: Fampridine Results Send Acorda Up +20%

TheEben — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 20:06:04 -0000

Cool... thanks. I love your articles to by the way. Been reading all your
stuff since stumbled on Baby Biotechs a year or so ago. Great work.

Re: Fampridine Results Send Acorda Up +20%

Brian — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 18:52:04 -0000

Yeah the $1 billion question is how many patients have walking issues that warrant taking the drug. Here's my published take (which isn't much different than yours):
http://www.fool.com/investi...

Just found you from seeking alpha. Keep up the good work.

Re: Fampridine Results Send Acorda Up +20%

TheEben — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 14:10:06 -0000

Good analysis... you are right, I was kind of being facecious by saying
"fractions of a penny per dose" but the point was that the actual chemical,
4-aminopyridine, is crazy cheap (i.e. no synthesis steps).

If Elan is taking 20% royalty, that has to be far more than the cost of the
manufacturing, right? Most drugs are marked up 5x to 10x so giving a
manufacturer 20% seems about right. Everyone makes a buttload of profit.

The real issue will be # of Rx's. Because this drug hasn't been shown to
reduce frequency of relapsing remitting episodes, it may only be dosed
during a flareup... it's possible insurance won't pay for chronic use.

I'm just talking out my ass here, I'm neither a billing/reimbursement
specialist or a neurologist, so it is total speculation.

It will be interesting to see what neurologists will say collectively about
how they will use this therapy given the data.

I'm sure the guys on the street have paid the big money for primary market
reports that answer all these questions... so we can see how they grade the
stock in the next few months.

Re: Fampridine Results Send Acorda Up +20%

Brian — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 13:35:53 -0000

The drug is manufactured by Elan using its extended release technology (notice the SR, which I assume stands for sustained release, at the end of the name). I've heard that Elan gets 20% royalties on the sales (although I haven't verified that), so I don't think its "fractions of a penny per dose."

Still a high gross profit if they price it at the expected $5,000-$10,000 per year.